One result that emerged from our workshops is that mines are seen as an emerging challenge. However, these exercises under-examine threats to maritime trade that underwater drones are likely to produce in the future. This is a good start, but the scale of the purchases has raised concerns they will become all-consuming for Australia’s military.Īustralia also engages in exercises such as Autonomous Warrior to test new and emerging systems in maritime defence. Under the AUKUS security pact, Australia has engaged the United Kingdom and the US to buy and build nuclear-powered submarines, and seeks to acquire and develop new systems “with additional undersea capabilities”. We found a growing tension between efforts to protect ocean-borne trade and critical undersea infrastructure today, and more forward-looking strategies aimed at developing the next generation of maritime defence. With colleagues at the RMIT Centre for Cyber Security Research and Innovation, Charles Darwin University, and WiseLaw, we ran workshops with people from government, the Royal Australian Navy, Defence, industry and academia. Our new research examined the threat to Australia’s trade posed by autonomous, uncrewed underwater vehicles. In this regard, the intrinsic features of the seabed make it the ideal theatre for non-attributable actions in “grey zones”. It is worth quoting the French Seabed Warfare Strategy on this point: Artists impression of Manta Ray (DARPA)Īn attack on the underwater part of submarine cables is a potential cause of action, with possibilities ranging from a “convenient” accident in a coastal area, to deliberate military action. Put differently, drone submarines may lend themselves to creating apparent accidents and other actions that can’t be pinned on their instigators. In this context, uncrewed marine vessels may offer states a deniable way to carry out aggressive actions to advance their aims without crossing the threshold of war. The advent of sea drones may also encourage the further growth of hybrid or “grey zone” approaches to conflict, which avoid outright warfare, keep casualties low, and can inflict heavy costs on enemies. Others suggest autonomous maritime systems, as they grow cheaper and more effective, may become preferred over crewed vehicles for national defence: by one estimate, uncrewed vessels may make up more than half of the US naval fleet by 2052. Some analysts argue these developments amount to the dawn of a “ new age of naval warfare”. In the South China Sea, China is developing an “ Underwater Great Wall” of ships, bases and drone (both at surface level and beneath) to monitor the area and make it difficult for foreign navies to operate in international waters. In February 2023, NATO established an Undersea Infrastructure Coordination Cell in response to the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas line in September 2022.įor instance, the United States’ proposed Advanced Undersea Warfare System envisions a network of fixed submarine stations able to deploy defensive and offensive drones. In 2022, France launched its Seabed Warfare Strategy to address autonomous underwater maritime threats. Seabed warfareĪustralia is not alone in its rising concern for submarine security. What can be done? Our assessment – validated through workshops with experts from across Australia – shows the same technologies can aid our maritime security, if we build them into our planning from now on. A blockage, an accident, an explosion – any could be catastrophic for Australia, a country that conducts 99% of trade by sea and imports more than 90% of its fuel.Īs drone submarines or “uncrewed underwater vehicles” (UUVs) become cheaper, more common and more sophisticated, Australia’s 34,000km of coastline will face a significant future threat. The underwater drone uses sensors and sonar to navigate towards its pre-programmed target: the single, narrow port channel responsible for the state’s core fuel supply … A small crew huddles over a miniature submarine, activates the controls, primes the explosives, and releases it into the water. Adam Bartley and Matthew Warren, RMIT UniversityĪ 12-tonne fishing boat weighs anchor three kilometres off the port of Adelaide.

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